Log In
COMMENTS0
x
Loren MaxwellLoren Maxwell

Maxwell Week 7 Summary: Mays and Roswell ride big wins

Comments 0

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia’s 417 teams throughout the 2015 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results from this past week:
– Mays turned a solid 41-21 win over Creekside into a 3.51 point gain in the ratings, good enough to leap from #4 to #1 in Class AAAAA. Still, the race is wide open at this point with less than 10 points difference between #1 Mays and #11 Northgate, the largest such grouping around the top team in any classification.
– Roswell crushed previously undefeated Walton 48-14 to jump over 6 points in the ratings and into the #3 spot in Class AAAAAA and overall. Currently Roswell has a rating of 89.00, which would be their second highest rating ever if the season ended today. Their 2006 team that went 13-1-1 had a rating of 90.20 and tied Peachtree Ridge for the state title in Class AAAAA, the largest classification at the time.


Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season’s results in combination with each team’s historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team’s historical performance diminishes as the team’s season progresses.

The current total weight of all team’s historical performance is 14.94%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 1,047 of 1,120 total games including 1 tie(s) (93.53%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.29 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team’s opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell’s Georgia High School Football Archive.


Home Advantage: 1.21

By Class

AAAAAA AAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Colquitt County 6-0 99.97 1 Mays 6-0 79.31
2 Grayson 6-0 94.11 2 Northside (Warner Robins) 6-0 78.34
3 Roswell 5-0 89.00 3 Ware County 5-0 77.11
4 Archer 4-1 88.92 4 Stephenson 4-1 76.89
5 Mill Creek 6-0 87.93 5 Allatoona 5-1 72.81
6 McEachern 4-1 85.26 6 Creekside 4-2 70.34
7 Peachtree Ridge 4-2 82.26 7 Houston County 6-0 70.27
8 Norcross 6-0 81.37 8 Gainesville 4-1 70.00
9 Lee County 6-0 79.96 9 Coffee 5-1 69.98
10 Camden County 6-0 79.95 10 Stockbridge 5-0 69.66
11 Lowndes 4-2 78.85 11 Northgate 6-0 69.48
12 Walton 5-1 77.68 12 East Paulding 4-1 67.63
13 Newton 5-1 71.86 13 South Paulding 4-1 67.26
14 Valdosta 4-2 71.44 14 Jones County 5-1 64.01
15 Etowah 5-1 71.04 15 Lanier 5-0 63.63
AAAA AAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 4-1 82.57 1 Calhoun 6-0 76.66
2 Cartersville 5-0 76.21 2 Blessed Trinity 5-0 73.93
3 Sandy Creek 4-1 74.87 3 Jefferson 6-0 70.80
4 Woodward Academy 5-0 72.32 4 Cedar Grove 4-1 63.39
5 Marist 5-1 69.41 5 Elbert County 5-1 59.34
6 Bainbridge 6-0 66.81 6 Westside (Macon) 5-1 55.06
7 St. Pius X 3-2 64.66 7 Peach County 5-1 54.19
8 Mary Persons 5-0 61.66 8 Central (Carrollton) 5-0 52.95
9 Jonesboro 5-1 61.26 9 Jackson 4-1 51.09
10 Spalding 6-0 60.23 10 Dodge County 6-0 50.72
11 Burke County 5-1 58.62 11 Pierce County 4-1 50.54
12 Thomson 4-1 57.31 12 Adairsville 4-1 50.08
13 West Laurens 5-1 56.77 13 Callaway 4-1 49.08
14 Carrollton 2-3 56.35 14 Hart County 3-2 47.99
15 Worth County 3-2 56.11 15 Laney 3-2 47.61
AA A
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Benedictine 5-0 74.67 1 Eagle’s Landing Christian 3-3 59.78
2 Greater Atlanta Christian 5-1 71.49 2 Mount Paran Christian 5-0 55.77
3 Fitzgerald 6-0 68.41 3 Prince Avenue Christian 6-0 55.56
4 Wesleyan 6-0 54.03 4 Turner County 6-0 55.10
5 Rabun County 5-1 50.37 5 Charlton County 4-1 50.78
6 Brooks County 4-2 49.40 6 Marion County 4-1 49.71
7 Macon County 3-2 48.47 7 Calvary Day 5-0 48.52
8 Pace Academy 5-1 48.42 8 Irwin County 3-2-1 47.15
9 Jefferson County 4-2 47.85 9 Clinch County 5-1 46.17
10 Lovett 2-4 47.03 10 Lincoln County 6-0 45.85
11 Lamar County 3-2 46.43 11 Aquinas 5-1 45.54
12 Darlington 6-0 46.32 12 Landmark Christian 4-2 42.63
13 Early County 3-2-1 45.70 13 Savannah Christian 4-1 41.48
14 Bacon County 3-2 42.95 14 Emanuel County Institute 4-1 40.19
15 Dublin 4-2 41.58 15 Pinecrest Academy 4-1 38.17

 

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Colquitt County 1-AAAAAA 6-0 99.97 53.16 72
2 [2] Grayson 8-AAAAAA 6-0 94.11 66.04 13
3 [3] Roswell 5-AAAAAA 5-0 89.00 66.04 14
4 [4] Archer 8-AAAAAA 4-1 88.92 68.62 9
5 [5] Mill Creek 7-AAAAAA 6-0 87.93 55.94 51
6 [6] McEachern 4-AAAAAA 4-1 85.26 68.47 10
7 [1] Buford 8-AAAA 4-1 82.57 39.40 212
8 [7] Peachtree Ridge 7-AAAAAA 4-2 82.26 56.05 49
9 [8] Norcross 7-AAAAAA 6-0 81.37 59.28 35
10 [9] Lee County 1-AAAAAA 6-0 79.96 38.96 214
11 [10] Camden County 1-AAAAAA 6-0 79.95 55.39 54
12 [1] Mays 6-Div B-AAAAA 6-0 79.31 51.70 83
13 [11] Lowndes 1-AAAAAA 4-2 78.85 69.87 6
14 [2] Northside (Warner Robins) 2-AAAAA 6-0 78.34 44.41 150
15 [12] Walton 5-AAAAAA 5-1 77.68 65.60 18
16 [3] Ware County 3-AAAAA 5-0 77.11 38.59 222
17 [4] Stephenson 6-Div A-AAAAA 4-1 76.89 48.30 111
18 [1] Calhoun 6-AAA 6-0 76.66 39.72 207
19 [2] Cartersville 7-AAAA 5-0 76.21 49.13 105
20 [3] Sandy Creek 5-AAAA 4-1 74.87 53.95 67
21 [1] Benedictine 2-AA 5-0 74.67 47.02 124
22 [2] Blessed Trinity 4-Div B-AAA 5-0 73.93 43.57 162
23 [5] Allatoona 5-AAAAA 5-1 72.81 53.81 69
24 [4] Woodward Academy 5-AAAA 5-0 72.32 47.83 113
25 [13] Newton 2-AAAAAA 5-1 71.86 57.49 44
26 [2] Greater Atlanta Christian 6-AA 5-1 71.49 44.38 151
27 [14] Valdosta 1-AAAAAA 4-2 71.44 54.21 65
28 [15] Etowah 5-AAAAAA 5-1 71.04 54.72 58
29 [3] Jefferson 8-AAA 6-0 70.80 46.49 128
30 [16] Parkview 8-AAAAAA 3-2 70.62 75.56 3
31 [17] East Coweta 3-AAAAAA 5-0 70.57 50.11 98
32 [18] North Cobb 4-AAAAAA 3-3 70.34 65.89 17
33 [6] Creekside 6-Div B-AAAAA 4-2 70.34 62.20 22
34 [7] Houston County 2-AAAAA 6-0 70.27 40.86 191
35 [8] Gainesville 8-AAAAA 4-1 70.00 44.52 149
36 [9] Coffee 3-AAAAA 5-1 69.98 50.71 94
37 [10] Stockbridge 4-Div B-AAAAA 5-0 69.66 39.63 209
38 [11] Northgate 4-Div A-AAAAA 6-0 69.48 37.44 233
39 [5] Marist 6-AAAA 5-1 69.41 38.93 215
40 [19] Central Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 4-1 69.00 60.14 32
41 [20] Dacula 8-AAAAAA 4-2 68.42 61.86 24
42 [3] Fitzgerald 1-AA 6-0 68.41 45.33 138
43 [21] North Gwinnett 7-AAAAAA 2-4 67.94 77.41 2
44 [22] Tift County 1-AAAAAA 5-1 67.78 40.14 201
45 [23] Tucker 2-AAAAAA 3-3 67.67 57.55 43
46 [12] East Paulding 5-AAAAA 4-1 67.63 60.02 33
47 [13] South Paulding 5-AAAAA 4-1 67.26 56.65 46
48 [6] Bainbridge 1-Div B-AAAA 6-0 66.81 45.94 133
49 [24] Harrison 4-AAAAAA 4-2 65.48 55.43 53
50 [7] St. Pius X 6-AAAA 3-2 64.66 54.46 62
51 [25] Newnan 3-AAAAAA 4-1 64.62 55.16 56
52 [26] Collins Hill 7-AAAAAA 3-3 64.17 58.38 39
53 [27] Brookwood 8-AAAAAA 3-3 64.13 64.77 20
54 [14] Jones County 2-AAAAA 5-1 64.01 38.90 216
55 [28] Lassiter 5-AAAAAA 3-3 63.72 65.90 16
56 [15] Lanier 8-AAAAA 5-0 63.63 47.02 125
57 [29] Hughes 3-AAAAAA 2-3 63.60 66.03 15
58 [4] Cedar Grove 4-Div A-AAA 4-1 63.39 36.72 243
59 [30] Westlake 3-AAAAAA 3-2 62.96 53.09 73
60 [16] Carver (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 4-1 62.93 50.75 93
61 [31] Wheeler 5-AAAAAA 3-3 62.89 60.60 28
62 [32] Cherokee 5-AAAAAA 4-1 62.76 47.20 122
63 [33] Hillgrove 4-AAAAAA 3-3 62.19 60.57 30
64 [8] Mary Persons 2-AAAA 5-0 61.66 44.78 145
65 [34] Milton 5-AAAAAA 1-4 61.39 70.79 5
66 [17] Glynn Academy 3-AAAAA 4-2 61.37 50.93 92
67 [9] Jonesboro 4-Div B-AAAA 5-1 61.26 49.33 103
68 [18] Carver (Atlanta) 6-Div B-AAAAA 5-1 60.75 41.81 180
69 [35] Lambert 6-AAAAAA 4-1 60.66 51.31 89
70 [19] Dalton 7-Div A-AAAAA 4-2 60.35 53.44 71
71 [20] Starr’s Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 5-0 60.24 41.96 179
72 [10] Spalding 4-Div B-AAAA 6-0 60.23 37.28 236
73 [36] South Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 5-0 60.06 38.53 223
74 [1] Eagle’s Landing Christian 5-A 3-3 59.78 60.89 27
75 [21] Alexander 5-AAAAA 4-1 59.38 44.60 148
76 [5] Elbert County 8-AAA 5-1 59.34 48.77 108
77 [37] Alpharetta 6-AAAAAA 3-2 59.13 51.69 84
78 [38] South Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 1-5 59.11 72.14 4
79 [22] Creekview 7-Div A-AAAAA 3-3 59.09 62.10 23
80 [23] Mundy’s Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 4-2 58.88 46.75 127
81 [24] Warner Robins 2-AAAAA 5-1 58.71 37.54 232
82 [11] Burke County 3-AAAA 5-1 58.62 47.59 117
83 [12] Thomson 3-AAAA 4-1 57.31 46.05 131
84 [25] Kell 7-Div B-AAAAA 4-2 56.92 47.97 112
85 [13] West Laurens 2-AAAA 5-1 56.77 43.58 161
86 [39] West Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 3-2 56.69 47.52 119
87 [26] South Effingham 3-AAAAA 5-0 56.40 43.74 160
88 [14] Carrollton 5-AAAA 2-3 56.35 56.15 48
89 [40] Lovejoy 2-AAAAAA 2-4 56.19 61.72 25
90 [15] Worth County 1-Div B-AAAA 3-2 56.11 51.67 85
91 [27] Cass 7-Div A-AAAAA 4-2 56.07 49.13 104
92 [16] Thomas County Central 1-Div A-AAAA 3-2 56.06 50.18 97
93 [2] Mount Paran Christian 6-Div A-A 5-0 55.77 22.97 358
94 [3] Prince Avenue Christian 8-A 6-0 55.56 23.11 357
95 [28] Loganville 8-AAAAA 5-1 55.30 40.10 202
96 [4] Turner County 2-A 6-0 55.10 22.76 360
97 [41] North Paulding 4-AAAAAA 1-5 55.06 69.35 7
98 [6] Westside (Macon) 2-AAA 5-1 55.06 40.25 199
99 [17] Eastside 4-Div A-AAAA 4-1 54.94 41.34 186
100 [29] Riverwood 7-Div B-AAAAA 5-1 54.84 36.51 245
101 [30] Effingham County 3-AAAAA 4-2 54.72 51.52 87
102 [31] New Manchester 5-AAAAA 3-2 54.21 51.32 88
103 [42] Woodstock 5-AAAAAA 3-3 54.20 52.03 81
104 [7] Peach County 2-AAA 5-1 54.19 35.67 252
105 [43] Marietta 4-AAAAAA 1-5 54.17 68.78 8
106 [4] Wesleyan 6-AA 6-0 54.03 29.92 300
107 [18] Stephens County 8-AAAA 4-1 53.68 43.77 159
108 [32] Rome 7-Div A-AAAAA 3-2 53.57 49.67 102
109 [33] Cambridge 7-Div B-AAAAA 4-1 53.36 39.41 211
110 [8] Central (Carrollton) 5-AAA 5-0 52.95 32.16 278
111 [19] Eagle’s Landing 4-Div A-AAAA 4-2 52.67 43.01 168
112 [34] Dutchtown 4-Div B-AAAAA 2-4 52.65 59.27 36
113 [35] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4-Div B-AAAAA 5-1 52.58 34.56 257
114 [20] Liberty County 3-AAAA 4-2 52.57 46.30 129
115 [36] Drew 4-Div A-AAAAA 3-2 52.36 41.78 181
116 [44] Shiloh 8-AAAAAA 0-5 51.27 65.09 19
117 [37] Columbus 1-AAAAA 5-1 51.27 42.39 174
118 [9] Jackson 2-AAA 4-1 51.09 33.37 263
119 [5] Charlton County 2-A 4-1 50.78 40.67 192
120 [10] Dodge County 1-Div A-AAA 6-0 50.72 26.57 331
121 [21] Cairo 1-Div A-AAAA 1-3 50.57 54.70 59
122 [38] Winder-Barrow 8-AAAAA 3-3 50.56 52.68 76
123 [11] Pierce County 1-Div A-AAA 4-1 50.54 40.23 200
124 [22] Wayne County 3-AAAA 2-5 50.47 58.45 37
125 [5] Rabun County 8-AA 5-1 50.37 28.07 319
126 [39] Paulding County 5-AAAAA 3-2 50.37 49.80 101
127 [40] LaGrange 1-AAAAA 3-3 50.19 47.12 123
128 [45] South Cobb 3-AAAAAA 2-3 50.18 52.40 80
129 [12] Adairsville 6-AAA 4-1 50.08 39.19 213
130 [23] Upson-Lee 2-AAAA 4-1 49.83 33.41 261
131 [6] Marion County 4-A 4-1 49.71 27.72 322
132 [41] Southwest DeKalb 6-Div A-AAAAA 2-3 49.60 54.55 60
133 [6] Brooks County 1-AA 4-2 49.40 42.89 170
134 [24] Locust Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 5-0 49.15 30.67 292
135 [46] Mountain View 7-AAAAAA 1-5 49.14 67.90 12
136 [13] Callaway 5-AAA 4-1 49.08 38.70 219
137 [47] Centennial 6-AAAAAA 2-3 48.91 56.47 47
138 [42] Sprayberry 7-Div B-AAAAA 4-2 48.77 37.91 230
139 [43] Lakeside (Evans) 2-AAAAA 2-4 48.73 58.14 40
140 [25] Howard 2-AAAA 5-1 48.59 38.63 220
141 [7] Calvary Day 3-Div A-A 5-0 48.52 18.11 382
142 [7] Macon County 4-AA 3-2 48.47 44.13 156
143 [8] Pace Academy 6-AA 5-1 48.42 36.10 249
144 [44] Salem 8-AAAAA 4-2 48.29 38.62 221
145 [26] Veterans 2-AAAA 2-3 48.13 54.51 61
146 [14] Hart County 8-AAA 3-2 47.99 41.63 184
147 [27] Griffin 4-Div B-AAAA 2-4 47.92 50.27 96
148 [28] Monroe 1-Div A-AAAA 3-3 47.92 47.21 121
149 [9] Jefferson County 3-AA 4-2 47.85 40.39 197
150 [29] Arabia Mountain 6-AAAA 2-3 47.61 57.24 45
151 [15] Laney 3-AAA 3-2 47.61 41.07 189
152 [8] Irwin County 2-A 3-2-1 47.15 44.82 144
153 [30] Whitewater 5-AAAA 2-3 47.08 50.64 95
154 [10] Lovett 6-AA 2-4 47.03 47.75 115
155 [31] North Hall 8-AAAA 2-3 47.00 51.05 90
156 [48] Johns Creek 6-AAAAAA 2-3 46.76 53.46 70
157 [11] Lamar County 4-AA 3-2 46.43 38.04 229
158 [16] Cook 1-Div A-AAA 4-2 46.38 36.84 239
159 [45] Miller Grove 6-Div A-AAAAA 3-2 46.34 44.17 155
160 [12] Darlington 7-AA 6-0 46.32 25.97 333
161 [46] M. L. King 6-Div A-AAAAA 1-4 46.19 60.26 31
162 [9] Clinch County 2-A 5-1 46.17 27.11 325
163 [10] Lincoln County 7-Div B-A 6-0 45.85 22.06 365
164 [13] Early County 1-AA 3-2-1 45.70 38.52 224
165 [11] Aquinas 7-Div B-A 5-1 45.54 22.33 363
166 [49] Northview 6-AAAAAA 3-2 45.53 41.31 187
167 [32] Columbia 6-AAAA 3-3 45.47 42.73 173
168 [47] Tri-Cities 6-Div B-AAAAA 3-2 44.69 39.96 204
169 [48] Sequoyah 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-4 44.65 60.58 29
170 [49] Statesboro 3-AAAAA 1-4 44.51 55.80 52
171 [17] Decatur 4-Div B-AAA 4-1 44.25 32.42 271
172 [50] Flowery Branch 8-AAAAA 3-3 44.24 40.62 193
173 [51] Brunswick 3-AAAAA 1-5 44.23 54.33 63
174 [52] Clarke Central 8-AAAAA 2-3 44.04 43.52 163
175 [33] North Oconee 8-AAAA 2-3 44.03 47.82 114
176 [18] Central (Macon) 2-AAA 3-3 43.88 42.34 175
177 [34] Grady 6-AAAA 2-3 43.67 46.22 130
178 [19] Westminster (Atlanta) 4-Div B-AAA 2-3 43.41 41.09 188
179 [20] Jenkins 1-Div B-AAA 3-2 43.16 41.67 183
180 [53] Hiram 5-AAAAA 3-2 43.01 38.29 226
181 [14] Bacon County 2-AA 3-2 42.95 42.22 177
182 [50] Kennesaw Mountain 4-AAAAAA 2-3 42.74 44.29 152
183 [12] Landmark Christian 5-A 4-2 42.63 32.59 268
184 [51] Douglas County 3-AAAAAA 0-5 42.39 57.56 42
185 [35] Baldwin 2-AAAA 3-3 42.25 41.61 185
186 [21] Pepperell 5-AAA 4-1 42.25 33.03 266
187 [54] Forsyth Central 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-3 42.12 46.79 126
188 [15] Dublin 3-AA 4-2 41.58 34.90 255
189 [13] Savannah Christian 3-Div A-A 4-1 41.48 22.32 364
190 [36] Westover 1-Div B-AAAA 0-4 41.20 58.44 38
191 [22] Oconee County 8-AAA 5-1 41.04 21.40 368
192 [23] Appling County 1-Div A-AAA 3-2 41.04 32.12 279
193 [37] Lithonia 6-AAAA 3-3 40.90 43.38 164
194 [55] Grovetown 2-AAAAA 3-2 40.75 42.29 176
195 [24] Washington County 3-AAA 1-5 40.66 50.11 99
196 [52] Berkmar 8-AAAAAA 0-6 40.62 78.20 1
197 [38] Pickens 7-AAAA 4-1 40.61 31.48 283
198 [14] Emanuel County Institute 3-Div B-A 4-1 40.19 22.51 361
199 [16] Model 7-AA 5-1 40.01 31.39 284
200 [56] Harris County 1-AAAAA 1-4 39.88 43.00 169
201 [57] Chapel Hill 5-AAAAA 2-3 39.84 44.24 153
202 [17] Hapeville 6-AA 4-2 39.76 31.57 282
203 [53] Duluth 7-AAAAAA 1-5 39.71 68.00 11
204 [18] Thomasville 1-AA 1-4 39.43 54.79 57
205 [39] Perry 2-AAAA 1-5 38.95 51.55 86
206 [58] Evans 2-AAAAA 2-4 38.39 43.09 166
207 [54] Pope 5-AAAAAA 0-5 38.37 61.03 26
208 [15] Pinecrest Academy 6-Div B-A 4-1 38.17 28.17 316
209 [19] Chattooga 7-AA 5-1 37.99 25.74 336
210 [59] Villa Rica 5-AAAAA 0-6 37.96 56.04 50
211 [40] Monroe Area 8-AAAA 2-3 37.90 47.37 120
212 [41] Crisp County 1-Div A-AAAA 2-4 37.90 59.41 34
213 [42] Redan 6-AAAA 3-3 37.75 36.83 240
214 [60] Union Grove 4-Div B-AAAAA 1-4 37.74 48.54 109
215 [55] North Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 1-4 37.61 52.84 75
216 [61] Richmond Hill 3-AAAAA 2-3 37.56 48.78 107
217 [20] Vidalia 2-AA 4-2 37.41 23.42 353
218 [62] Ola 4-Div B-AAAAA 2-3 37.39 40.61 194
219 [43] Americus-Sumter 1-Div B-AAAA 2-4 37.32 44.73 146
220 [63] Northside (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 3-2 37.15 37.20 237
221 [16] Wilkinson County 7-Div A-A 4-1 37.09 28.17 317
222 [17] Stratford Academy 7-Div A-A 3-2 36.79 29.79 302
223 [25] Ringgold 6-AAA 2-3 36.77 40.10 203
224 [44] Northwest Whitfield 7-AAAA 4-2 36.69 28.22 314
225 [56] Pebblebrook 3-AAAAAA 2-3 36.65 41.69 182
226 [45] Ridgeland 7-AAAA 2-3 36.56 36.96 238
227 [26] Spencer 2-AAA 2-3 36.43 44.90 143
228 [18] Trion 6-Div A-A 5-1 36.39 16.64 389
229 [21] Heard County 5-AA 3-3 36.39 33.40 262
230 [22] B.E.S.T. Academy 6-AA 2-4 36.37 45.51 137
231 [23] Manchester 5-AA 4-2 36.34 28.74 309
232 [19] Athens Academy 8-A 5-0 36.30 6.50 413
233 [64] Druid Hills 6-Div A-AAAAA 3-2 36.11 29.39 303
234 [20] Commerce 8-A 3-3 36.08 35.40 254
235 [27] Jackson County 8-AAA 3-3 35.80 38.85 217
236 [46] Heritage (Ringgold) 7-AAAA 3-2 35.65 32.93 267
237 [28] Dawson County 7-AAA 3-2 35.25 33.11 265
238 [65] Luella 4-Div B-AAAAA 2-3 35.22 36.22 247
239 [21] Brookstone 4-A 3-2 35.06 31.39 285
240 [24] Screven County 3-AA 5-1 34.95 18.13 381
241 [29] Morgan County 8-AAA 3-2 34.51 25.90 334
242 [47] White County 8-AAAA 1-4 34.35 42.85 172
243 [48] Henry County 4-Div A-AAAA 3-2 34.29 29.15 305
244 [49] Fayette County 5-AAAA 1-4 34.08 44.72 147
245 [25] Metter 3-AA 4-1 34.08 26.82 328
246 [30] Brantley County 1-Div A-AAA 3-3 33.95 29.89 301
247 [26] Washington-Wilkes 8-AA 1-4 33.88 43.23 165
248 [66] Shaw 1-AAAAA 3-3 33.59 33.24 264
249 [50] Walnut Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 2-3 33.46 38.29 225
250 [31] Southeast Bulloch 1-Div B-AAA 2-3 33.39 39.88 205
251 [57] Chattahoochee 6-AAAAAA 0-5 33.23 53.95 66
252 [22] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6-Div A-A 5-1 33.14 12.31 402
253 [51] Troup 5-AAAA 0-5 33.07 53.92 68
254 [27] Union County 8-AA 6-0 33.05 9.64 408
255 [58] Meadowcreek 7-AAAAAA 2-4 32.97 64.23 21
256 [28] Putnam County 4-AA 5-1 32.97 22.43 362
257 [32] Sonoraville 6-AAA 4-2 32.43 19.14 375
258 [23] Pacelli 4-A 4-2 32.40 25.56 339
259 [29] Berrien 1-AA 1-4 32.28 44.24 154
260 [33] Franklin County 7-AAA 3-2 32.19 30.14 297
261 [34] West Hall 7-AAA 2-3 31.74 32.58 269
262 [67] Cedar Shoals 8-AAAAA 1-4 31.73 47.74 116
263 [68] Banneker 6-Div B-AAAAA 0-5 31.70 57.71 41
264 [30] Bleckley County 4-AA 1-4 31.55 42.12 178
265 [31] Dade County 7-AA 3-2 31.52 38.15 227
266 [32] Bowdon 5-AA 1-4 31.41 40.41 196
267 [24] Hawkinsville 4-A 4-2 31.02 22.86 359
268 [69] McIntosh 4-Div A-AAAAA 2-4 31.01 40.30 198
269 [25] Mount Pisgah Christian 6-Div B-A 2-3 30.99 36.57 244
270 [33] Pelham 1-AA 3-2 30.96 30.87 289
271 [35] Tattnall County 1-Div A-AAA 3-3 30.66 31.15 287
272 [52] Riverdale 4-Div B-AAAA 4-2 30.56 25.54 340
273 [26] Christian Heritage 6-Div A-A 3-3 30.52 32.58 270
274 [27] Telfair County 2-A 3-3 29.98 28.43 313
275 [28] Dooly County 4-A 2-3 29.89 32.41 272
276 [59] Campbell 3-AAAAAA 2-3 29.81 33.44 260
277 [34] Swainsboro 3-AA 3-3 29.78 30.76 290
278 [60] Rockdale County 2-AAAAAA 1-5 29.66 52.48 78
279 [61] Lakeside (Atlanta) 2-AAAAAA 3-3 29.12 29.27 304
280 [70] Bradwell Institute 3-AAAAA 0-5 28.81 55.24 55
281 [35] Coosa 7-AA 1-4 28.74 43.07 167
282 [36] Washington 4-Div B-AAA 1-4 28.70 38.14 228
283 [37] East Hall 7-AAA 1-4 28.66 37.31 235
284 [38] North Clayton 4-Div A-AAA 1-4 28.56 40.87 190
285 [39] Maynard Jackson 4-Div A-AAA 1-4 28.42 45.76 134
286 [29] Johnson County 3-Div B-A 3-3 28.40 30.38 294
287 [30] First Presbyterian 7-Div A-A 2-3 28.16 31.31 286
288 [71] Woodland (Cartersville) 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-4 28.15 44.91 142
289 [36] Bremen 5-AA 3-3 26.98 26.72 329
290 [31] Greenville 4-A 3-2 26.97 23.23 355
291 [62] Alcovy 2-AAAAAA 1-5 26.78 45.62 135
292 [37] Greene County 8-AA 3-3 26.77 28.77 308
293 [38] McIntosh County Academy 2-AA 1-4 26.43 40.48 195
294 [53] Gilmer 7-AAAA 1-4 26.36 37.32 234
295 [54] Southeast Whitfield 7-AAAA 4-2 25.74 11.88 404
296 [72] Richmond Academy 2-AAAAA 1-5 25.60 51.91 82
297 [39] Seminole County 1-AA 1-4 25.52 31.63 281
298 [40] Holy Innocents 6-AA 1-5 25.49 42.86 171
299 [55] Chamblee 6-AAAA 2-3 25.43 30.74 291
300 [41] Jeff Davis 2-AA 4-1 25.34 14.83 394
301 [40] Banks County 7-AAA 4-2 25.23 19.40 374
302 [32] Fellowship Christian 6-Div B-A 3-2 25.09 17.63 386
303 [73] Cross Creek 2-AAAAA 1-5 25.02 48.97 106
304 [74] Lithia Springs 5-AAAAA 0-5 24.98 50.07 100
305 [41] Therrell 4-Div B-AAA 3-2 24.93 25.70 337
306 [42] Douglass 4-Div B-AAA 3-2 24.60 23.86 350
307 [43] Kendrick 2-AAA 2-3 24.17 34.02 259
308 [44] Towers 4-Div A-AAA 1-4 24.00 39.62 210
309 [45] Southwest 2-AAA 2-3 23.86 35.62 253
310 [63] Habersham Central 6-AAAAAA 0-5 23.85 54.21 64
311 [75] Apalachee 8-AAAAA 0-6 23.68 52.45 79
312 [33] Miller County 1-A 3-3 23.66 27.77 321
313 [46] Jordan 2-AAA 2-4 23.42 34.64 256
314 [56] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4-Div B-AAAA 1-5 23.19 39.68 208
315 [76] Greenbrier 2-AAAAA 1-4 23.14 50.97 91
316 [77] North Atlanta 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-4 22.99 44.00 157
317 [47] Lumpkin County 7-AAA 2-4 22.91 27.97 320
318 [48] Cedartown 5-AAA 0-5 22.74 36.02 250
319 [78] Heritage (Conyers) 8-AAAAA 0-6 22.70 45.95 132
320 [34] Athens Christian 8-A 2-4 22.69 31.11 288
321 [79] Dunwoody 6-Div A-AAAAA 2-3 22.50 30.46 293
322 [35] Treutlen 3-Div B-A 4-2 22.30 18.99 377
323 [42] Long County 2-AA 1-4 21.42 34.42 258
324 [49] Rockmart 5-AAA 1-4 21.40 30.14 296
325 [57] Dougherty 1-Div B-AAAA 3-2 21.29 20.15 372
326 [36] Hancock Central 7-Div B-A 2-4 21.21 28.72 310
327 [80] North Springs 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-4 21.13 43.98 158
328 [37] Tattnall Square 7-Div A-A 3-2 21.12 14.92 393
329 [38] Twiggs County 7-Div A-A 2-3 21.06 28.07 318
330 [50] Josey 3-AAA 4-2 20.52 18.27 380
331 [39] Atkinson County 2-A 2-4 19.90 27.29 324
332 [43] Gordon Lee 7-AA 3-3 19.47 18.08 383
333 [51] Beach 1-Div B-AAA 3-3 19.41 23.74 352
334 [44] East Laurens 3-AA 4-1 19.39 12.97 400
335 [64] Osborne 4-AAAAAA† 0-5 19.13 44.91 141
336 [58] Chestatee 8-AAAA 0-5 19.07 45.32 139
337 [40] Savannah Country Day 3-Div A-A 1-4 18.83 32.41 273
338 [52] Fannin County 7-AAA 2-3 18.61 19.86 373
339 [81] Forest Park 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-5 18.36 53.03 74
340 [41] Walker 6-Div A-A 3-3 18.32 24.89 345
341 [59] Johnson (Gainesville) 8-AAAA† 2-4 18.27 24.41 346
342 [53] Rutland 2-AAA 1-5 17.67 36.80 241
343 [42] George Walton Academy 8-A 2-3 17.66 21.89 366
344 [43] Mitchell County 1-A 1-4 17.62 32.31 275
345 [45] Bryan County 2-AA 1-4 17.42 28.78 307
346 [60] New Hampstead 3-AAAA† 5-1 17.16 1.28 416
347 [61] Madison County 8-AAAA 0-5 16.99 36.14 248
348 [54] Butler 3-AAA 3-2 16.97 17.80 385
349 [44] Taylor County 4-A 1-4 16.90 25.58 338
350 [55] North Murray 6-AAA 2-4 16.81 26.59 330
351 [56] Toombs County 1-Div A-AAA 1-4 16.57 32.19 277
352 [82] Hardaway 1-AAAAA 1-5 16.10 36.75 242
353 [62] Pike County 4-Div B-AAAA 0-6 15.92 45.24 140
354 [57] Westside (Augusta) 3-AAA 1-5 15.87 30.25 295
355 [58] McNair 4-Div A-AAA 1-4 15.72 28.61 311
356 [45] Whitefield Academy 6-Div B-A 1-4 15.65 28.87 306
357 [83] River Ridge 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-6 15.41 37.80 231
358 [46] Wilcox County 2-A 2-4 15.32 24.22 348
359 [47] Portal 3-Div A-A 1-4 14.86 25.12 341
360 [48] Terrell County 1-A 2-4 14.77 32.22 276
361 [49] Claxton 3-Div A-A 1-4 14.62 25.12 342
362 [46] Harlem 3-AA 2-4 14.35 24.22 347
363 [50] Hebron Christian Academy 8-A 4-2 14.30 8.66 410
364 [47] Northeast 4-AA 0-5 14.23 31.74 280
365 [51] Our Lady of Mercy 5-A 2-4 14.14 23.31 354
366 [59] Savannah 1-Div B-AAA 2-4 14.06 28.20 315
367 [52] Warren County 7-Div B-A 2-4 13.38 24.95 344
368 [48] Monticello 4-AA 0-6 13.35 32.35 274
369 [60] Haralson County 5-AAA 1-4 13.31 21.24 370
370 [53] Randolph-Clay 1-A 3-3 12.95 18.69 378
371 [84] Morrow 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-6 12.82 48.40 110
372 [54] Central (Talbotton) 4-A 3-3 11.75 17.33 387
373 [49] Crawford County 4-AA† 5-2 11.68 2.86 414
374 [61] Murray County 6-AAA 3-2 11.58 8.54 411
375 [50] Temple 5-AA 3-3 10.84 13.11 399
376 [55] Mount de Sales 7-Div A-A 1-4 10.56 21.34 369
377 [56] King’s Ridge Christian 6-Div B-A 0-5 10.33 36.40 246
378 [62] South Atlanta 4-Div A-AAA 0-5 10.09 28.57 312
379 [51] Social Circle 8-AA 2-3 10.05 26.90 327
380 [57] Wheeler County 3-Div B-A 2-3 9.97 20.18 371
381 [52] Riverside Military Academy 8-AA 1-4 9.60 27.03 326
382 [63] Albany 1-Div A-AAAA 0-6 9.01 29.95 299
383 [58] North Cobb Christian 6-Div A-A† 3-2 8.24 7.50 412
384 [59] Jenkins County 3-Div A-A 1-4 8.09 18.46 379
385 [64] LaFayette 7-AAAA 1-4 7.96 24.10 349
386 [63] Glenn Hills 3-AAA 0-6 7.19 45.55 136
387 [65] Stone Mountain 6-AAAA 0-6 6.78 47.58 118
388 [64] Johnson (Savannah) 1-Div B-AAA 0-5 6.66 26.18 332
389 [53] Chattahoochee County 5-AA 1-4 6.46 14.51 396
390 [60] Strong Rock Christian 5-A 1-4 5.94 14.52 395
391 [65] East Jackson 8-AAA 1-5 5.05 25.12 343
392 [61] St. Francis 6-Div B-A 1-4 4.17 13.97 397
393 [66] Hampton 4-Div A-AAAA 0-6 3.30 52.62 77
394 [66] Islands 1-Div B-AAA 1-4 2.48 30.07 298
395 [54] Oglethorpe County 8-AA 0-6 2.03 39.87 206
396 [67] Hephzibah 3-AAA 1-4 1.58 12.77 401
397 [67] Windsor Forest 3-AAAA 1-4 1.57 16.79 388
398 [62] Georgia Military College 7-Div B-A 1-4 0.86 17.82 384
399 [55] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6-AA 0-6 0.69 35.87 251
400 [63] Lanier County 2-A 0-5 -0.22 27.54 323
401 [64] Baconton 1-A 2-4 -0.30 12.25 403
402 [56] Groves 2-AA 0-5 -1.12 14.99 392
403 [65] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5-A 2-3 -1.39 2.36 415
404 [57] Armuchee 7-AA 1-5 -1.90 23.15 356
405 [66] Lakeview Academy 8-A 2-3 -2.50 -0.62 417
406 [67] Schley County 4-A 0-5 -3.11 19.09 376
407 [68] Calhoun County 1-A 0-6 -3.88 23.75 351
408 [85] Clarkston 6-Div A-AAAAA† 0-5 -4.30 38.73 218
409 [69] Montgomery County 3-Div B-A 0-6 -4.93 21.88 367
410 [70] Towns County 8-A 1-5 -5.53 16.44 390
411 [68] Gordon Central 6-AAA 1-5 -7.02 25.78 335
412 [69] Coahulla Creek 6-AAA 1-4 -7.47 10.64 407
413 [70] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6-AAA 0-6 -15.55 11.69 405
414 [71] Glascock County 7-Div B-A† 0-6 -17.43 13.21 398
415 [72] Providence Christian 8-A 0-5 -22.17 11.53 406
416 [73] Stewart County 1-A† 0-6 -23.10 15.74 391
417 [68] Cross Keys 6-AAAA† 0-3 -24.93 9.58 409
†-Plays non-region schedule

 

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 – AAAAAA 96.26 79.00
2 8 – AAAAAA 87.44 66.94
3 7 – AAAAAA 86.24 64.35
4 5 – AAAAAA 82.80 64.61
5 4 – AAAAAA 77.91 61.80
6 5 – AAAA 74.34 52.59
7 3 – AAAAA 72.17 52.61
8 3 – AAAAAA 71.73 53.20
9 6 – AAAAA 71.59 50.52
6 – Div B – AAAAA 78.72 58.17
6 – Div A – AAAAA 63.09 45.22
10 5 – AAAAA 71.18 52.04
11 2 – AAAAAA 70.52 46.12
12 2 – AAAAA 70.30 46.69
13 4 – AAAAA 66.51 46.11
4 – Div A – AAAAA 67.38 45.23
4 – Div B – AAAAA 65.45 46.78
14 8 – AAAAA 64.99 45.67
15 6 – AAAAAA 64.86 47.82
16 2 – AAAA 64.83 49.38
17 8 – AAA 64.22 43.01
18 3 – AAAA 63.58 49.59
19 7 – AAAAA 63.51 45.74
7 – Div A – AAAAA 65.22 47.40
7 – Div B – AAAAA 61.67 44.18
20 1 – AAAA 62.48 43.69
1 – Div B – AAAA 64.88 44.50
1 – Div A – AAAA 60.25 42.95
21 6 – AA 62.17 41.86
22 6 – AAAA 61.56 43.10
23 8 – AAAA 60.62 40.48
24 1 – AAAAA 60.32 42.00
25 4 – AAAA 60.31 40.13
4 – Div B – AAAA 62.08 39.81
4 – Div A – AAAA 58.66 40.39
26 1 – AA 60.05 40.64
27 2 – AAA 56.01 36.48
28 2 – A 55.31 34.51
29 4 – AAA 55.25 31.74
4 – Div B – AAA 60.60 37.61
4 – Div A – AAA 48.32 25.85
30 7 – AAAA 54.99 34.05
31 5 – AAA 53.80 33.58
32 5 – A 52.08 20.81
33 2 – AA 52.00 28.55
34 6 – AAA 50.89 19.38
35 1 – AAA 50.29 30.64
1 – Div A – AAA 55.89 39.19
1 – Div B – AAA 39.41 19.02
36 3 – AA 48.81 31.92
37 4 – AA 48.06 31.41
38 7 – AA 47.86 30.48
39 4 – A 44.36 26.35
40 6 – A 44.35 26.98
6 – Div A – A 49.72 34.23
6 – Div B – A 38.49 20.66
41 8 – AA 44.02 23.40
42 7 – A 43.21 25.59
7 – Div B – A 44.59 25.04
7 – Div A – A 42.16 25.90
43 7 – AAA 42.52 27.84
44 5 – AA 42.41 25.44
45 3 – A 42.15 21.45
3 – Div A – A 44.77 22.82
3 – Div B – A 39.15 19.79
46 8 – A 42.01 17.43
47 3 – AAA 41.98 20.16
48 1 – A 25.21 11.08

 

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
08/28 Southeast Whitfield Murray County 21 – 35 15.37 82.3% 0.221
09/25 Swainsboro Harlem 27 – 34 16.64 84.1% 0.227
09/25 Westminster (Atlanta) Therrell 23 – 25 17.27 84.9% 0.241
08/28 Sandy Creek Jonesboro 15 – 17 14.82 81.5% 0.277
08/28 Druid Hills Chamblee 12 – 19 11.89 76.7% 0.300
08/28 Richmond Academy Westside (Augusta) 20 – 27 10.94 74.9% 0.316
09/04 Central Gwinnett Mundy’s Mill 20 – 35 8.91 70.9% 0.328
09/18 Washington McNair 6 – 7 11.77 76.4% 0.329
09/11 Alpharetta Johns Creek 39 – 42 11.16 75.3% 0.329
09/11 Northwest Whitfield Southeast Whitfield 12 – 21 9.73 72.6% 0.330
09/11 Macon County Perry 33 – 34 10.72 74.5% 0.346
09/18 Vidalia McIntosh County Academy 14 – 15 9.77 72.6% 0.361
09/11 Jonesboro Eagle’s Landing 7 – 17 7.39 67.7% 0.369
08/28 Emanuel County Institute Swainsboro 28 – 29 9.20 71.5% 0.370
09/25 Dublin Metter 14 – 17 8.71 70.5% 0.370

 

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
90.51 09/11 Grayson Archer 26 – 24 6.40 65.5%
84.08 08/29 Archer Peachtree Ridge 26 – 10 7.87 68.7%
83.93 11/06 Mill Creek Peachtree Ridge 6.88 66.6%
83.68 09/11 McEachern Peachtree Ridge 6 – 9 1.79 54.5%
83.54 09/04 McEachern Buford 37 – 14 3.89 59.6%
83.19 10/30 Mill Creek Norcross 7.76 68.5%
82.65 10/09 Colquitt County Lee County 18.80 86.8%
82.64 11/06 Colquitt County Camden County 18.81 86.8%
81.81 10/23 Norcross Peachtree Ridge 0.33 50.8%
81.42 10/02 Colquitt County Lowndes 42 – 20 19.91 88.0%
80.90 08/21 Roswell Lowndes 35 – 8 11.35 75.7%
79.92 10/30 Lee County Camden County 1.22 53.0%
79.71 10/02 Roswell Walton 48 – 14 12.52 77.8%
79.40 10/16 Lowndes Lee County 0.10 50.3%
79.27 10/09 Camden County Lowndes 2.31 55.7%
Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 95 other followers